The Israel Policy Center

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Building A Jewish Democracy

 

 

Kadima Primaries Leave a Bad Taste in Everyone’s Mouth.

 

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who is now working to reconstitute Ehud Olmert’s Parliamentary coalition and take his place as Prime Minister, won Kadima’s primaries by just 431 votes — 1.1% of the total. The loser, Shaul Mofaz, declined to challenge the results, but some of his supporters are doing so. They have launched an appeal in Kadima’s internal court, but this is merely a preliminary. If they lose there they will undoubtedly appeal to Tel Aviv District Court. If they win, Kadima will have to do its primaries over again. Even if the result is the same — Kadima voters are not likely to be grateful to Mofaz for shlepping them to the polls again — Israel’s political system will be thrust into turmoil.

 

While there seem to have been irregularities at a few polling places, nobody is accusing the central election authorities of Kadima of wrongdoing. They may, however, have mismanaged the elections, taking controversial decisions that in retrospect will prove to have been mistakes. In the early evening they decided to leave the polls open for an extra half hour, till 10:30. As is often the case in elections, the outcome was widely believed to depend on the turnout; a larger turnout favored Livni, who in the end just squeaked by. According to the chairman of Kadima’s election commission, both candidates’ campaigns complained of lengthy lines at the polls and importuned him to make it possible for more people to vote. Was extending the polling day the right answer? In a race so close, did the extra half hour cause victory to pass from Mofaz’ camp to Livni’s? No one will ever know.

 

To add to the injury, the media failed to take into account the extension of the polling day and published exit polls at 10:15 in the evening, when many voters were still waiting in line. The exit polls showed Livni with a decisive lead. By morning the polls were proven wrong, but nobody knows how many Mofaz supporters decided to give up and go home at the last minute.

 

The Knesset Constitution and Law Committee is rushing work on a bill to prohibit the publication of polls during the week prior to primary elections; however, the Knesset is not in session now and there was no way for the bill to become law before Kadima’s primaries were held. A similar law already limits publishing polls before general elections.

 

Another source of concern is the small number of participants in Kadima’s primaries.  In part, this is a reflection of the small scale of Israeli politics. In the United States, tens of millions of people participated in this year’s Democratic primaries. By contrast, less than 40,000 participated in Kadima’s.

 

According to some sources, only about 10 or 15,000 members of Kadima’s 74,000 members actually signed up as individuals, most during the initial period of enthusiasm after the party was formed. The rest came from “vote contractors,” individuals who sign up friends and acquaintances and market their votes to candidates for promises of favors and influence. Some of the contractors are the heads of union locals or of extended Arab families — hamulot — capable of dragooning thousands of voters into a political party and instructing them how to vote. It’s hard to call such a system, where votes are bought and sold wholesale, genuine democracy.

 

Kadima’s primaries did not work well and have damaged the reputation of this method of selecting candidates. Among the solutions proposed is to adopt an open primary system, which is the norm in most American states. This would greatly increase the pool of potential voters and limit the influence of vote contractors.  Another proposed “solution” is to eliminate primaries altogether and go back to the method common in the first decades of Israel’s existence, when candidates were selected by a few party elders in a smoke-filled room.